CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2024-10-24T03:48:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2024-10-24T03:48ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/34152/-1
CME Note: Partial halo CME visible to the SE in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2. The source is an X3.3 flare starting at 2024-10-24T03:30Z from AR 3869 (approx. S17E68). Brightening and post eruptive arcades are observed in SDO AIA 131/171/193/335, EUV wave seen in SDO AIA 193, and opening field lines are best seen in SDO AIA 171/193. The eruption is also seen from STEREO A EUV 195/304. Arrival signature is characterized by an amplification of magnetic field components with Btotal increasing from 15nt to 22nt. A subsequent increase in solar wind speed was observed from 385 km/s to 511 km/s at 16:09Z, with an increase in temperature observed as well. The signature was preceded by a prior enhancement in solar wind parameters, most notably magnetic field components, associated with IPS: 2024-10-26T11:35Z.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-10-26T15:34Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-10-26T12:20Z (-3.0h, +7.0h)
Prediction Method: EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
Prediction Method Note:
************************************************************************************** % Compiled module: EAM ************************************************************************************** Most pr. speed = 1383.0 km/sec The EAM version you are running is: v3 Utilizing the upgraded version EAM_v3 [Paouris et al. 2021 - DOI: 10.1007/s11207-020-01747-4] u_r = 796.569 Acceleration: -0.722209 Duration in seconds: 203559.91 Duration in days: 2.3560175 ************************************************************************************** Acceleration of the CME: -0.72 m/s^2 Velocity of the CME at 1 AU: 649.6 km/s Expected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 26/10/2024 Time: 12:20 UT **************************************************************************************Lead Time: 20.88 hour(s)
Difference: 3.23 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Evangelos Paouris (JHUAPL) on 2024-10-25T18:41Z
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